Master class policy and budgetary forecasting

 Housing Permits, Housing Starts, Housing Construction and Government Revenue

You will notice that the readings (well there are some data sites and some charts and graphs) cover a variety of topics—well it seems that way but not really so. What you are going to do a
forecasting the near-time future for revenue collection coming into primarily local governments but also state governments as a result of how you are looking at the housing market. In the case of the readings I have given you, you will notice some address housing permits, some address housing starts (or construction). Local governments, in particular, pay attention to these things because they are trying to project future revenue (property taxes) that will collect. Several years back I was going over the housing permits that were issued for St. Louis County and a local government official was noticing that the vast majority of the housing permits were for construction west of Lindbergh, not East (in fact, Chesterfield and around there). So, from that data you could begin to make some projections about what that meant to which local governments within the county. I went over similar housing permits issued in Saint Charles County and a local government official was noticing the number of permits for housing construction in
the “high-end” market. Both of these conversations were some years before the onset of the Great
Recession we see beginning in 2009. But, you start to get the idea that data about housing permits, when construction will begin, the types of homes to be built are closely followed regarding their impact on projecting revenue to be collected.  

GUIDELINES FOR THIS ASSIGNMENT  
1)  minimum of five  .  
2)  discuss various charts, graphs, data (notice I gave you links to US Census Bureau sites). You want to show how you use data to draw conclusions about government revenue to be collected.  
3) In addition , housing construction affects other policy areas (besides revenue to be, hopefully, collected). Housing affects traffic congestion, schools to be built, the need for new fire stations, or police stations and other policy areas. So while I have you primarily focusing on housing permits, housing construction and government revenue, be aware in your about other policy areas that will be impacted.  
4) Here you are—forecasting. Notice, where and how you use information to look into the future (usually not too far into the future).

 US CENSUS BUREAU ON CHARACTERISTICS OF NEW HOUSING:
http://www.census.gov/construction/chars/highlights.html  

 US CENSUS BUREAU ON HOUSING PERMITS AND STARTS
This page you use it to look at the period from getting the permits to starting and
completion housing construction:
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/lengthoftime.html  

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